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Term in electoral politics
A marginal seat or swing seat is a constituency held with a small majority in a legislative election, generally one conducted under a single-winner voting
Marginal_seat
Topics referred to by the same term
in 2001 Marginal (manga) El Marginal, Argentine TV series Marginal seat or marginal constituency or marginal, in politics Marginalism Marginal analysis
Marginal
EMSR stands for Expected Marginal Seat Revenue and is a very popular heuristic in Revenue Management. There are two versions: EMSRa and EMSRb, both of
Expected marginal seat revenue
Expected_marginal_seat_revenue
Electoral district considered to be secure
dominant party's nomination for a safe seat. There is a spectrum between safe and marginal seats. Supposedly safe seats can still change hands in a landslide
Safe_seat
Overview of politics in South Australia
Liberal seat. Adelaide is considered to be a safe Labor seat. Sturt is considered to be a marginal seat. As of 2024, the most recent state referendum in South
Politics_of_South_Australia
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1885 onwards
represented by Conservative MPs, but from the 1990s onwards became a marginal seat, or swing seat, and since 2024 has been represented by Josh Babarinde, a Liberal
Eastbourne_(constituency)
British Conservative politician
McFadden. Mullan was selected as the Conservative candidate for the marginal seat of Crewe and Nantwich in September 2018. At the 2019 general election
Kieran_Mullan
State election for New South Wales, Australia in March 2007
a 13 seat majority prior to the election to a marginally decreased 11 seat majority. The Liberals succeeded in taking two independent-held seats and one
2007 New South Wales state election
2007_New_South_Wales_state_election
Plurality voting system
and marginal seats". The Guardian. 7 April 2010. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2017. Wickham, Alex. ""Safe seats" almost
First-past-the-post_voting
Election for the 45th Parliament of Australia
that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales, unusually nearly half of all marginal government seats are in New South Wales at this election
2016 Australian federal election
2016_Australian_federal_election
This is a list of marginal seats in the United Kingdom after the results in the 2010 general election. Ten most marginal seats (by majority) from the 2010
Marginal constituencies in the 2010 United Kingdom general election
Marginal_constituencies_in_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
Travel Demand and Airline Seat Inventory Management. Flight Transportation Laboratory. Cambridge, MIT. PhD Yield management Expected marginal seat revenue
Littlewood's_rule
UK Parliament constituency (since 1997)
a Conservative MP. In the 1997 and 2001 general elections, the seat was very marginal, with majorities of less than 1,000 votes for the Conservative candidate
Boston_and_Skegness
Kingdom general election List of marginal seats before the 2017 United Kingdom general election List of marginal seats before the 2015 United Kingdom general
List of marginal seats before the 2019 United Kingdom general election
List_of_marginal_seats_before_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
general election was held on 4 July 2024. This list shows the most marginal seats, ie those needing the smallest swing to be won by each of the political
List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election
List_of_marginal_seats_before_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
British Conservative politician (born 1952)
2016 Kent Police and Crime Commissioner election. She contested the marginal seat of Scunthorpe at the 2015 general election, but lost to the Labour incumbent
Jo_Gideon
36th Philippine senatorial election
stated that he is retiring in 2028 after his first term. These are the marginal seats that had a winning margin of 5% or less against the 13th placed candidate
2028 Philippine Senate election
2028_Philippine_Senate_election
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
to create a single Bendigo electorate. It was recreated in 1985 as a marginal seat and was won by Liberal candidate Michael John, who went on to serve
Electoral district of Bendigo East
Electoral_district_of_Bendigo_East
Provincial election
replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives hold the seat narrowly. June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources
2023 Manitoba general election
2023_Manitoba_general_election
British politician (born 1972)
further headlines due to Barwell publishing a book titled How to Win a Marginal Seat after his 2015 victory. Jones made her maiden speech in the House of
Sarah_Jones_(politician)
Results of the 43rd Canadian federal election
majority of the seats in the House, was returned with a minority of the seats, while the Conservative Party of Canada gained fewer seats than expected and
Results breakdown of the 2019 Canadian federal election
Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election
Deliberative assembly that makes laws
legislator can also be described as a "seat", as, for example, in the phrases "safe seat" and "marginal seat". After election, the members may be protected
Legislature
Australian federal electoral division
become an increasingly marginal seat. The 2007 outcome in Bennelong resulted in Labor candidate Maxine McKew winning the seat on a thin 1.4-point margin
Division_of_Bennelong
Australian federal electoral division
effectively 0.005%, making Bowman Australia's most marginal seat at the time. Laming went on to retain the seat comfortably for the Liberal National Party of
Division_of_Bowman
Australian federal electoral division
mortgage belt seats, which tend to be fairly marginal. Though now a marginal seat, for nearly a century it had been one of the safest Labor seats in the country
Division_of_Hindmarsh
Australian federal electoral division
Labor Party. The seat at its creation was a 'marginal seat', being notionally held by the Labor Party by only 3.3%. A hybrid urban-rural seat, Bullwinkel takes
Division_of_Bullwinkel
Election of South Australia's 56th parliament
triggering a by-election in his seat of Dunstan. Held on 23 March, Labor candidate Cressida O'Hanlon won the marginal seat with a 1.4 per cent swing towards
2026 South Australian state election
2026_South_Australian_state_election
British politician (1893–1967)
Swansea. For the 1959 general election, Morris' seat was one of the most high-profile marginal seats in the country. He had Aneurin Bevan to open his
Percy_Morris
UK Parliament constituency (since 1997)
held the seat from 1997 until losing reelection in 2015 to Conservative James Berry. Kingston and Surbiton has been considered a marginal seat, as well
Kingston_and_Surbiton
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
a marginal seat, and is part of the belt of marginal seats in eastern Melbourne that usually decide elections in Victoria. Labor then held the seat until
Electoral district of Bentleigh
Electoral_district_of_Bentleigh
Australian state election
helped in attracting multicultural votes towards the Liberal party in marginal seats that mattered. A large majority of the Victorian Indian community voted
2010_Victorian_state_election
Australian federal electoral division
member of the Australian Labor Party. In 2019, Macquarie was the most marginal seat in the country, held by a 0.19-point margin on the 2PP. However, in
Division_of_Macquarie
Australian federal electoral division
to the Tonkin Highway and Lord Street in the east. Cowan was once a marginal seat, but is now strongly held by the Australian Labor Party. The current
Division_of_Cowan
Australian politician (1922–1984)
election, defeating one-term Liberal MP Don Jessop in the seat of Grey, then a marginal seat centred on industrial towns in western South Australia. He
Laurie_Wallis
Australian federal electoral division
cent, just 1.7 per cent (3,000 votes) short of taking the seat, making Mayo a marginal seat for the first time. However, on "traditional" two-party terms
Division_of_Mayo
Australian federal electoral division in Tasmania
the city of Launceston and its surrounds. It has traditionally been a marginal seat and has had more members than any other federal electorate, at 18 members
Division_of_Bass
British politician (born 1972)
worked as a solicitor and corporate lawyer. She was elected to the marginal seat of Loughborough at the 2010 general election. She served as Economic
Nicky_Morgan
British Conservative politician (born 1972)
2015 election, Barwell retained his seat with a majority of just 165. Barwell's book, How to Win a Marginal Seat: My Year Fighting for my Political Life
Gavin_Barwell
Vote potentially going to more than one candidate
constituency contains a large proportion of swing voters it is often called a marginal seat and extensive campaign resources are poured into it. An April 2016 poll
Swing_vote
Greek-Australian political consultant
field campaigning strategy as Labor's marginal seats director. Under the strategy, which had been trialled in some seats at the 2013 federal election, Labor
Kos_Samaras
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
electorate westwards. It has traditionally been a marginal seat. Graham Ernst of the Labor Party won the seat in the 1985 and 1988 elections but was defeated
Electoral district of Bellarine
Electoral_district_of_Bellarine
one current seat. Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections
List of marginal seats before the 2015 United Kingdom general election
List_of_marginal_seats_before_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
British politician (born 1945)
(MP) for Oxford East from 1983 to 1987. After narrowly losing that marginal seat he re-entered the House of Commons at a by-election for Epping Forest
Steven_Norris
Election for the 59th Parliament of Victoria
considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10% to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10%, while "marginal" seats require
2018_Victorian_state_election
Australian federal electoral division
Braddon has traditionally been a marginal seat. However, in 2022 the trend was broken, with Braddon becoming a "fairly safe" seat for the first time in twelve
Division_of_Braddon
UK Parliament constituency (1918–1945, 1997 onwards)
Conservatives by a margin of just 15 votes, making Hendon the most marginal seat in the United Kingdom. Hendon is a suburban constituency in the Borough
Hendon_(constituency)
Australian federal electoral division
the seat was created. It has taken on a character similar to mortgage belt seats. As such, for most of its history, it has been a marginal seat usually
Division_of_Solomon
Election for the 61st Parliament of Victoria
exposed in two marginal seats". The Age. Retrieved 30 September 2025. Everitt, Corey (1 October 2025). "Vulin will not re-contest Pakenham seat in 2026, MP
2026_Victorian_state_election
as Lord Mayor. He subsequently won preselection for the seat of Fannie Bay, a marginal seat being vacated by former Chief Minister Clare Martin. He was
Garry_Lambert
the United Kingdom List of United Kingdom general elections List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election Given that Sinn Féin
2024 United Kingdom general election
2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
South Australian state electoral district
into a notional marginal Liberal electorate. However, Labor retained the seat at the 1985 election, albeit as the most marginal seat in parliament. Liberal
Electoral district of Adelaide
Electoral_district_of_Adelaide
British political party
candidates in the 2024 general election, targeting Conservative-held marginal seats and MPs who 'obstruct climate action'. The party's core focus is on
Climate_Party
Mahon was selected as parliamentary candidate for the marginal seat of Blackburn West, but the seat was abolished by redistribution prior to the 1955 general
Peter_Mahon_(politician)
independents contested the election. The United National Congress won 26 seats, forming a majority government, with its leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar becoming
2025 Trinidad and Tobago general election
2025_Trinidad_and_Tobago_general_election
Australian federal electoral division
Sturt. This saw Boothby change from a marginal Labor seat on a 1.8 percent two-party margin to a marginal Liberal seat on a two percent two-party margin.
Division_of_Boothby
State electoral district of Western Australia
Perth. Joondalup has tended to be a marginal seat, having been marginal from 1996 until 2021, when it became a safe seat for the first time since 1986. The
Electoral district of Joondalup
Electoral_district_of_Joondalup
27th Philippine House of Representatives elections
violating the Omnibus Election Code, only the courts. These are the marginal seats that had a winning margin of 5% or less in the 2022 elections, in ascending
2025 Philippine House of Representatives elections
2025_Philippine_House_of_Representatives_elections
Australian federal electoral division
As a result, for most of its existence it has been highly marginal. Unlike most marginal seats with similar demographics, however, McEwen is not considered
Division_of_McEwen
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
Buninyong. As a result, it is estimated that Ripon would be a Labor marginal seat from results of the 2018 election with a margin of 2.8%. "Victorian
Electoral_district_of_Ripon
UK Parliament constituency (1983–1997)
general election, and abolished for the 1997 general election. It was a marginal seat throughout its lifetime. This was a constituency of a varied nature
Clwyd_South_West
35th Philippine senatorial election
assuming office, leaving his seat vacant until his successor is elected in the regular election. These are the marginal seats that had a winning margin of
2025 Philippine Senate election
2025_Philippine_Senate_election
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
re-created in 1985. In its current incarnation, it has historically been a marginal seat with demographics similar to the state at large. As such, it was held
Electoral_district_of_Geelong
UK Parliament constituency (since 1983)
statistics collected reflect a socially diverse seat in terms of income; this has been a highly marginal seat when national polls are close, with lower than
Bolton_North_East
State electoral district of Victoria, Australia
Chirnside Park, Doncaster East, and Ringwood. Warrandyte was originally a marginal seat, being held by the Liberal Party from the creation of the electorate
Electoral district of Warrandyte
Electoral_district_of_Warrandyte
Overview of politics in the Northern Territory
a safe Labor seat. The suburbs of Darwin are considered to be safe Labor seats. Drysdale and Barkly are considered to be marginal seats. The Northern
Politics of the Northern Territory
Politics_of_the_Northern_Territory
Retrieved 22 September 2013. List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election List of marginal seats before the 2019 United Kingdom general
List of marginal seats before the 2017 United Kingdom general election
List_of_marginal_seats_before_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
UK Parliament constituency (since 1983)
election, James Frith regained the seat which he had held for Labour from 2017 to 2019. Bury North is a marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives
Bury_North
Australian politician (born 1968)
Labor seat into a marginal seat. Le again was unsuccessful, losing the seat by 1,768 votes after preferences, reducing the overall margin for the seat to
Dai_Le
British politician (born 1995)
Wellingborough - The Northamptonshire constituency was the second most marginal seat for Labour in Sir Tony Blair's 1997 landslide, with Paul Stinchcombe
Gen_Kitchen
State electoral district of Queensland, Australia
creation, Maiwar was estimated to be a marginal seat for the Liberal National Party with a margin of 3.0%. The seat was won by Michael Berkman of the Queensland
Electoral_district_of_Maiwar
Australian politician and journalist
between 2009 and 2010, and again from 2012 to 2013. Coker won the ultra-marginal seat of Corangamite at the 2019 Australian federal election, defeating Liberal
Libby_Coker
Australian federal electoral division
Prime Minister of Australia. For much of its history, Barton has been a marginal seat, held by the Australian Labor Party for most of the time after 1940
Division_of_Barton
first-past-the-post electoral system, there is often concern, especially in marginal seats, that if voters of similar ideological leanings are split between multiple
2019 United Kingdom general election
2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Left-wing campaigning organisation based in Great Britain
target marginal seats (rather than defend safe ones); their MyNearestMarginal.com website enabled voters to search for campaign events in marginal constituencies
Momentum_(organisation)
British DJ, accountant, and political candidate
2003. He was the candidate for Watford in the 2005 General Election, a marginal seat, coming third with 14,634 (29.6%); The Almanac of British Politics said
Ali_Miraj
Australian political controversy
the projects were located almost exclusively in Liberal held seats, or in marginal seats. It followed the revelations in the sports rorts affair. In February
Car_park_rorts_affair
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1885 onwards
and a Labour MP in 2024. The seat has been considered, relative to others, an ultra-marginal seat, as well as a swing seat. From 2005 until 2024, its winner's
Lincoln_(constituency)
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1885 onwards
by Louise Sandher-Jones of the Labour Party. The seat had been, relative to others, a marginal seat from 2005 to 2017 as its winner's majority had not
North East Derbyshire (constituency)
North_East_Derbyshire_(constituency)
British politician
elected with a margin of 6 votes, which makes Runcorn and Helsby the most marginal seat in the current Parliament. Pinto-Duschinsky was previously a member
David_Pinto-Duschinsky
Australian federal electoral division
Ballarat used to be a marginal seat, changing hands at intervals between the Labor Party and the non-Labor parties. Unlike most marginal seats, it was not a barometer
Division_of_Ballarat
Australian federal electoral division
winning the seat was in the 1943 landslide, when the Country majority was pared back to an extremely marginal 1.1 percent. It was a marginal seat for most
Division_of_New_England
Australian state election
instability in the federal Coalition. Labor's narrow wins in middle class marginal seats saw it retain its majority despite the Liberals winning a bare majority
1988_Victorian_state_election
This is a list of marginal seats[citation needed] in the United Kingdom after the results in the 2005 General Election. At the 2010 General Election, boundary
Marginal constituencies in the 2005 United Kingdom general election
Marginal_constituencies_in_the_2005_United_Kingdom_general_election
Australian federal electoral division
population. This turned Sturt from a three percent marginal Labor seat to a 2.4 percent marginal Liberal seat. Makin opted to transfer to Bonython, and Keith
Division_of_Sturt
Ulster Unionist Party politician
for Fermanagh and South Tyrone in the 2024 general election, the most marginal seat in the United Kingdom with a Sinn Féin majority of just 56 votes over
Diana_Armstrong
Parliamentary constituency in Barbados
Browne, a member of the BLP. The Saint Philip North constituency is a marginal seat for the BLP. The constituency runs: From Shark’s Hole on the south eastern
Saint Philip North (Barbados Parliament constituency)
Saint_Philip_North_(Barbados_Parliament_constituency)
Former Australian federal electoral division
election. It was abolished prior to the 1993 federal election. It was a marginal seat that from 1963 onward was held by the governing party of the day. "Division
Division_of_Phillip
Japanese politician
districts. Kamiya was reelected to his seat by a very narrow margin of 21 votes, making Hokkaido-10th the most marginal seat in the election. Before running
Hiroshi_Kamiya_(politician)
Former Australian politician
election with a swing of 4.1 percent. Lindsay was regarded as a key marginal seat. During her term in office, Husar sat on parliamentary committees for
Emma_Husar
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1885 onwards
creation in 1885. The seat, centred on Mansfield in Nottinghamshire, in recent times has been considered a relatively marginal seat. The Mansfield council
Mansfield_(constituency)
Term for political candidate with little connection to district
represented the marginal seat of North West Durham, which he won in the 2019 general election with a slender 2.4% majority. His seat was abolished by
Parachute_candidate
UK Parliament constituency (since 1983)
part of the Thatcher ministry. The seat has been relative to others a marginal seat since 2001 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not
Warrington_South
Australian federal electoral division
elections. However, it has remained a Labor seat since the 1998 federal election. Unlike most marginal seats, Bendigo is not a barometer for winning government
Division_of_Bendigo
British politician (born 1964)
needed] He lost this marginal seat in 2005, before being selected to succeed Harry Cohen in Leyton and Wanstead, a safe Labour seat; he comfortably retained
John_Cryer
Australian politician (born 1956)
Abbott. Mundine was the Liberal Party's unsuccessful candidate for the marginal seat of Gilmore on the south coast of New South Wales in the 2019 Australian
Warren_Mundine
Australian politician (born 1978)
November 2006 Rishworth was preselected unopposed to contest the key marginal seat of Kingston, located in the south of Adelaide, at the 2007 federal election
Amanda_Rishworth
99 seats. The Coalition’s best results were in safe Liberal Party seats on Sydney’s North Shore while Labor won the battle in key marginal seats. Four
1995 New South Wales state election
1995_New_South_Wales_state_election
British politician (born 1942)
by-election. His attempts to be selected for a safe seat were thwarted, and when he found a winnable marginal seat, he found his vote split by an unofficial Conservative
Christopher Ward (British politician)
Christopher_Ward_(British_politician)
Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1950–1983
election, and abolished for the 1983 general election. It was a much more marginal seat than its neighbour, Huddersfield East, which was safely Labour, and
Huddersfield_West
parties prior to the 2007 Australian federal election. The table shows seats in the Australian House of Representatives arranged in the form of a Mackerras
Pre-election pendulum for the 2007 Australian federal election
Pre-election_pendulum_for_the_2007_Australian_federal_election
MARGINAL SEAT
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