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End of the human species
to human extinction. Later philosophers such as Al-Ghazali, William of Ockham, and Gerolamo Cardano expanded the study of logic and probability and began
Human_extinction
In population genetics, extinction probability is the chance of an inherited trait becoming extinct as a function of time t. If t = ∞ this may be the complement
Extinction_probability
Model for the extinction of family names
number of children of that descendant. The extinction probability (i.e. the probability of final extinction) is given by lim n → ∞ Pr ( X n = 0 ) . {\displaystyle
Galton–Watson_process
Kind of stochastic process
process theory provides a tractable framework for calculating extinction probabilities for population processes in cases where individuals act independently
Branching_process
Concept in evolutionary biology
hypothesis was intended to explain the constant (age-independent) extinction probability as observed in the paleontological record caused by co-evolution
Red_Queen_hypothesis
Mass extinction event about 66 million years ago
Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, formerly known as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K–T) extinction event, was a major mass extinction of three-quarters of
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
Cretaceous–Paleogene_extinction_event
Termination of a taxon in a region which it previously inhabited
ecosystems changes when evaluation future extinction risks and losses. Extinction risk is essentially the probability that a species will disappear from a
Local_extinction
Neanderthal extinction Neanderthals became extinct around 40,000 years ago. Hypotheses on the causes of the extinction include violence, transmission of
Neanderthal_extinction
Extinction of large animals at the end of the last Ice Age
proponents, however, say this is due to the fast extinction process in North America and the low probability of animals with signs of butchery to be preserved
Late_Pleistocene_extinctions
Probability of existentially catastrophic outcomes in AI
researchers were asked to estimate the probability that future AI advancements could lead to human extinction or similarly severe and permanent disempowerment
P(doom)
Scenario of civilization collapse or human extinction by nuclear weapons
the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons at 1% within the century, the probability of 1 billion dead at 10% and the probability of
Nuclear_holocaust
Level of extinction from which a species cannot recover
PMID 17803676. Ludwig, Donald (1996). "Uncertainty and the Assessment of Extinction Probabilities". Ecological Applications. 6 (4): 1067–1076. doi:10.2307/2269591
Quasi-extinction
Third stage of the Carboniferous
(2006) found an early Serpukhovian extinction rate of 31% among all marine genera. Using an extinction probability procedure generated from the Paleobiology
Serpukhovian
Ecological measurement of extinction risk
assess extinction risks. A large quantity of field data is desirable for PVA; some conservatively estimate that for a precise extinction probability assessment
Population_viability_analysis
Binary tree selected at random
In computer science and probability theory, a random binary tree is a binary tree selected at random from some probability distribution on binary trees
Random_binary_tree
Species of tortoise
ISBN 1-873943-06-7. Pérez, Irene et al. (2012). "Exurban sprawl increases the extinction probability of a threatened tortoise due to pet collections". Ecological Modelling
Greek_tortoise
Discussion of scenarios for a collapse of civilization due to climate change
civilizational collapse caused by climate change would soon lead to human extinction. Some researchers connect historical examples of societal collapse with
Climate change and civilizational collapse
Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse
Wildlife conservation park near Gqeberha in the Eastern Cape, South Africa
room," Nature 2008, p.860-863 Knight, M.H. "Evaluating herbivore extinction probabilities in Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa," African Zoology
Addo_Elephant_National_Park
Group of separated yet interacting ecological populations
During a time dt, each occupied patch can become unoccupied with an extinction probability edt. Additionally, 1 − N of the patches are unoccupied. Assuming
Metapopulation
Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk
is a related term limited to events that could cause full-blown human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's existence or potential
Global_catastrophic_risk
Philosophical interpretation of the axioms of probability
word "probability" has been used in a variety of ways since it was first applied to the mathematical study of games of chance. Does probability measure
Probability_interpretations
Wildlife conservation technique
Retrieved 12 March 2023. Saltz, David (1 January 1996). "Minimizing extinction probability due to demographic stochasticity in a reintroduced herd of Persian
Species_reintroduction
Doomsday scenario on human births
confusing probability with certainty. However, the actual conclusion for the version used above is that there is a 95% chance of extinction within 9,120
Doomsday_argument
Collection of random variables
In probability theory and related fields a stochastic (/stəˈkæstɪk/) or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a family of random
Stochastic_process
Smallest size a biological population can exist without facing extinction
assumptions in the model) for there to be, (for example) a 95% or 99% probability of survival 1,000 years into the future. Some models use generations
Minimum_viable_population
Species of bird
Carlos; Phalan, Ben; Silveira, Luís Fábio (2021). "Assessing the Extinction Probability of the Purple-winged Ground Dove, an Enigmatic Bamboo Specialist"
Purple-winged_ground_dove
Species of deer
28–37. Symposium proceedings, Sopron. Saltz, D. (1996) Minimizing extinction probability due to demographic stochasticity in a reintroduced herd of Persian
Persian_fallow_deer
magnitude, including counts of things, dimensionless quantities, and probabilities. Each number is given a name in the short scale, which is used in English-speaking
Orders_of_magnitude_(numbers)
Concept in genetics
distribution, where the "success" probability (probability of a given allele being present) is 1/2 (i.e., the probability that there are k copies of A (or
Genetic_drift
Method of logical reasoning
supported not with deductive certainty, but at best with some degree of probability. Unlike deductive reasoning (such as mathematical induction), where the
Inductive_reasoning
Hypothesized climate effects due to an asteroid or comet impact on Earth
and subsequently cascading collapse of food chains, leading to mass extinctions of the Earth's biosphere that wipe out many of the world's extant species
Impact_winter
Species of butterfly
survival: patch areas (affecting population size and therefore extinction probability), and distance between patches (influencing how easy it is to recolonise
Pseudophilotes_sinaicus
IUCN conservation category
the probability of extinction in the wild is at least 50% within 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer. The current extinction crisis
Critically_endangered
Management practice for protecting types of environments
ability of larger habitats to support greater populations with lower extinction probabilities. Noss & Cooperrider support the "larger is better" claim and developed
Habitat_conservation
human extinction)" long-term effect on humanity is 5%. A 2008 survey by the Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 5% probability of extinction by super-intelligence
Global_catastrophe_scenarios
Modelling of the Dynamics of Interacting Microbial Populations. Extinction Probabilities in a Stochastic Competition and Predation". Stephanopoulos began
Gregory_Stephanopoulos
American paleontologist
today—may enhance extinction probability." And in 2012 the authors of a paper published in Nature Communications concluded, "Mammoth extinction was not due
Paul_Schultz_Martin
French mathematician
generalizing his least squares method. He contributed to the fields of probability and statistics, and to their application to finance, demography and social
Irénée-Jules_Bienaymé
Statistical effects of small numbers on a population
greater the probability that fluctuations will lead to extinction. One demographic consequence of a small population size is the probability that all offspring
Small_population_size
Shorthand used in statistics
notation, these facts can be expressed as follows, where Pr() is the probability function, Χ is an observation from a normally distributed random variable
68–95–99.7_rule
Hypothesis of barriers to forming interstellar civilizations
(currently just one: human). This probability threshold, which could lie in the past or following human extinction, might work as a barrier to the evolution
Great_Filter
Intelligence of machines
dealing with uncertain or incomplete information, employing concepts from probability and economics. Many of these algorithms are insufficient for solving
Artificial_intelligence
Topics referred to by the same term
instantiation of a property in an object Event (probability theory), a set of outcomes to which a probability is assigned Event (relativity), a point in space
Event
Measure for hazard from asteroid or comet impacts on Earth
the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs, has been estimated at 100 million (108) megatons. Were an equivalent impact predicted with a probability of
Torino_scale
Supernova close enough to affect Earth's biosphere
which gives a probability of only around 5% for a supernova within 30 pc in the last 5 million years. They point out that the probability may be higher
Near-Earth_supernova
Thought experiment to assess ability to detect evidence of a prior advanced civilization
Quaternary time period (~2.5 million years ago), there would be low probability of finding direct evidence of a previous civilization, such as technological
Silurian_hypothesis
Concept in probability
A probability box (or p-box) is a characterization of an uncertain number consisting of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that is often used
Probability_box
Zoo in the Carmel mountains, Israel
doi:10.1093/ornithapp/duab065 Saltz, David (1996-01-01). "Minimizing extinction probability due to demographic stochasticity in a reintroduced herd of Persian
Carmel_Hai-Bar_Nature_Reserve
Gradual loss of flux intensity through a medium
This is mainly due to the photoelectric effect which states that "the probability of photoelectric absorption is approximately proportional to (Z/E)3,
Attenuation
Philosopher and writer (born 1973)
Callender. His thesis was titled Observational selection effects and probability. He held a teaching position at Yale University from 2000 to 2002, and
Nick_Bostrom
Subdivisions of geological time
are stretched out over several million years. For most species, extinction probabilities are "decoupled" in time from other species, as well as geological
Triassic land vertebrate faunachrons
Triassic_land_vertebrate_faunachrons
Species Richness: A Quantitative Approach for Estimating Global Extinction Probabilities. Environmental Science and Technology. Schmidt, S., Södersten,
Industrial_ecology_programme
Author bibliography
PMID 17816611. Gilpin ME, —— (January 1981). "Immigration and Extinction Probabilities for Individual Species: Relation to Incidence Functions and Species
Jared_Diamond_bibliography
Mathematical method of risk analysis
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) is a collection of methods of uncertainty propagation for making qualitative and quantitative calculations in the face
Probability_bounds_analysis
Species of bat
is possibly extinct. In 2017, a statistical model assessed the extinction probability of 23 mammal species that have been missing since the 19th century
Aru_flying_fox
Potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid
period of concern in December 2004, initial observations indicated a probability of 2.7% that the asteroid would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.
99942_Apophis
Functional relationship between two quantities
obey the treasured paradigm of statistical completeness. Especially probability bounds, the suspected cause of typical bending and/or flattening phenomena
Power_law
Hypothesized risk to human existence
intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI) could lead to human extinction or an irreversible global catastrophe. One argument for the validity of
Existential risk from artificial intelligence
Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence
Hypothetical model of extinction
same probability of extinction no matter where they originate in their taxonomy, and irrespective of traits that typically buffer against extinction. Raup
Field_of_bullets
Range of wavelengths from 650 to 1350 nanometre
scattering increases the distance travelled by photons within tissue, the probability of photon absorption also increases. The NIR window is primarily limited
Near-infrared window in biological tissue
Near-infrared_window_in_biological_tissue
Symbol which represents the likelihood of a human-made global catastrophe
Eschatology – Conceptions of the end of the present age Extinction symbol – Symbol to represent mass extinction Metronome – 1999 artwork by Jones and Ginzel Mutual
Doomsday_Clock
P-boxes and probability bounds analysis have been used in many applications spanning many disciplines in engineering and environmental science, including:
Applications of p-boxes and probability bounds analysis
Applications_of_p-boxes_and_probability_bounds_analysis
IUCN conservation category
in a very short period. E) Quantitative analysis showing the probability of extinction in the wild is at least 10% within 100 years. Some examples of
Vulnerable_species
1993 book by Stephen Jay Gould
discursive manner, including evolution and its teaching, science biography, probabilities, and common sense.[citation needed] The title essay, "Eight Little Piggies"
Eight_Little_Piggies
Methods to prevent destructive asteroid hits
triggered the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event that the scientific community understands to have caused the extinction of all non-avian dinosaurs. While
Asteroid_impact_avoidance
Discrepancy of the lack of evidence for alien life despite its apparent likelihood
series of calculations on the probability of earthlike planets, the probability of life given an earth, the probability of humans given life, the likely
Fermi_paradox
Migrations, mainly across North America
Act of 1973. The USFWS estimated in the proposed rule that the probability of extinction in the foreseeable future (60 years) is 56-74 percent for the
Monarch_butterfly_migration
Branch of ecology
by defining the functional trait probability density as a "function representing the distribution of probabilities of observing each possible trait value
Functional_ecology
History 309 Engineering David Blockley 22 March 2012 Engineering 310 Probability John Haigh 26 April 2012 Mathematics 311 Rivers Nick Middleton 26 April
List of Very Short Introductions books
List_of_Very_Short_Introductions_books
occupancy probability transition [OPT] model). The OPT model is based on Harte et al.'s bisection scheme (although not on their probability rule) and
Occupancy frequency distribution
Occupancy_frequency_distribution
American dog breed
short-haired dogs as Pit Bulls. Consequently, Pit Bulls have a lower probability of adoption or even being taken into shelters for care. Due to their
American_Pit_Bull_Terrier
Probabilistic problem-solving algorithms
interpretation of these branching processes. Extinction probabilities can be interpreted as absorption probabilities of some Markov process evolving in some
Mean-field_particle_methods
Consequence affecting an organism's future behavior
criterion that determines if a stimulus is reinforcing is the change in probability of a behavior after administration of that potential reinforcer. Other
Reinforcement
Hypothesis of hidden life in space
explanations of the Fermi paradox, which contrasts the apparently high probability of extraterrestrial life with the lack of evidence for it. The hypothesis
Dark_forest_hypothesis
Philosophical and social movement
individuals that could exist in the future, longtermists seek to decrease the probability that an existential catastrophe irreversibly ruins it. Toby Ord has stated
Effective_altruism
Aspect of learning procedure
sudden appearance of the (CR) after extinction occurs – and other related phenomena (see "Recovery from extinction" below). These phenomena can be explained
Classical_conditioning
Reproduction by closely related organisms
increased homozygosity increases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles and also slightly decreases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles in
Inbreeding
List of statements that appear to contradict themselves
countries each have nuclear weapons, the probability of a direct war between them greatly decreases, but the probability of minor or indirect conflicts between
List_of_paradoxes
Phenomenon where a species is perpetuated by a daughter species
Pseudoextinction (or phyletic extinction) of a species occurs when all members of the species are extinct, but members of a daughter species remain alive
Pseudoextinction
Type of AI with wide-ranging abilities
experts and industry figures have stated that mitigating the risk of human extinction posed by AGI should be a global priority. Others find the development
Artificial general intelligence
Artificial_general_intelligence
Long-term future of planet Earth
Holocene extinction is being caused by technology, and the effects may last for up to five million years. In turn, technology may result in the extinction of
Future_of_Earth
Possible large cosmic structure
continuous, one-dimensional probability distributions that can be used to compare a sample with a reference probability distribution (one-sample K–S
Hercules–Corona Borealis Great Wall
Hercules–Corona_Borealis_Great_Wall
Total number of living humans on Earth
were hunter-gatherers living in small bands that usually verged on the edge of extinction. Survival depended on the capture of hunted animals; if supply of animals
World_population
Milkweed butterfly in the family Nymphalidae
Species Act. The USFWS estimated in the proposed rule that the probability of extinction in the foreseeable future (60 years) is 56-74 percent for the
Monarch_butterfly
2000 novel by Nancy Kress
Probability Moon is a 2000 science fiction novel by the American writer Nancy Kress. The novel concerns a xenological expedition to the planet World,
Probability_Moon
Philosophical question
logically consistent with the existence of God, counts against or lowers the probability of the truth of theism. Both absolute versions and relative versions
Problem_of_evil
Pseudonym of a group of mathematicians
foundations: nothing about partial differential equations, nothing about probability. There is also nothing about combinatorics, nothing about algebraic topology
Nicolas_Bourbaki
Field of research
descending order of probability, starting with the outcome that the author considers more probable. "Bangs": the sudden extinction of earth's intelligent
Existential_risk_studies
West Germanic language spoken by the Franks from the 5th to 10th centuries
developed into the Central Franconian dialects, there are—apart from mere probability—some pieces of evidence, most importantly the development -hs → ss and
Frankish_language
(Clamator glandarius) are found in the Holy Land; however there is little probability that the cuckoo is intended, with shearwaters or seagulls being more
Animals_in_the_Bible
Family of dinosaurs
Despite an 89% probability that tyrannosauroids started out with feathers, they determined that scaly tyrannosaurids have a 97% probability of being true
Tyrannosauridae
Hypothesis about sapient life and the universe
the anthropic principle essentially just says that the conditional probability of finding yourself in a universe compatible with your existence is always
Anthropic_principle
Compact exotic star which forms matter consisting mostly of quarks
direct experiments. At least under the assumptions mentioned above, the probability of a given neutron star being a quark star is low,[citation needed] so
Quark_star
1993 novel by Arthur C. Clarke
Great Daylight Fireball, the Tunguska event and the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event. A new contact binary asteroid is discovered by an amateur astronomer
The Hammer of God (Clarke novel)
The_Hammer_of_God_(Clarke_novel)
Type of mansion in Western India
Wada is a Marathi word for denoting a large mansion. The term, in all probability, is derived from the Sanskrit word Vata, meaning a plot or a piece of
Wada_(house)
Psychological paradigm for behavior analysis
when the beak actually makes contact with the spot. ... The original probability of the response in its final form is very low; in some cases it may even
Shaping_(psychology)
evaluate performance, an extinction-investment curve is utilized. It evaluates data regarding the probability of species extinction (without intervention)
Ecological_triage
of particles occurs with positive probability, while if λ < λ c {\displaystyle \lambda <\lambda _{c}} their extinction is almost certain. Note that by reductio
Contact_process_(mathematics)
Internet community
use rationality to avoid cognitive biases. Common interests include probability, effective altruism, transhumanism, and mitigating existential risk from
Rationalist_community
Collection of Stephen Jay Gould essays
to Gould's writing: evolution and its teaching, science biography, probabilities and common sense.[citation needed] The title essay, "The Flamingo's
The_Flamingo's_Smile
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
Surname or Lastname
English
English : in all probability an English variant of Scottish Lachlan (see McLachlan), altered through folk etymology. However, Black cites one John sine terra (c. 1180–1214), suggesting that the surname could have arisen quite literally as a nickname for a man with no land.
Surname or Lastname
English (Yorkshire)
English (Yorkshire) : in all probability from the Swale river in Yorkshire. (Reaney and Wilson list a 17th-century example, Swayles, with this origin.) Alternatively, it may be a metronymic from the Old Norse female personal name Svala.
Female
English
Modern English name derived from the Sanskrit word nirvana, NIRVANA means "disappearance, extinction (of the soul)."Â
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
Girl/Female
Indian
The God of All; The Best Abilitied Student
Boy/Male
French, Hindu, Indian, Japanese, Latin, Spanish
Tuft; Plume; Frenchman; Free; Nickname for Francisco and Frank
Girl/Female
Assamese, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Tamil, Telugu
Grace
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Marathi, Telugu
Born in Sea; Goddess Lakshmi
Boy/Male
Arabic
Follower; Behind
Girl/Female
African, American, Arabic, Australian, British, Chinese, Christian, Danish, English, Finnish, French, German, Indian, Muslim, Swahili, Swedish, Teutonic
Famous Warrior; Renowned in Battle; Light; Feminine of Louis; Rabbit; Precious; Pearl
Boy/Male
Indian
Resolution, Firm will
Girl/Female
Finnish, German
Fear
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian
Small
Boy/Male
Hindu
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
n.
The act of extinguishing or making extinct; a putting an end to; the act of putting out or destroying light, fire, life, activity, influence, etc.
n.
Descent; pedigree; extraction.
n.
Act of wasting away; a consuming; extinction.
n.
A building up; construction.
n.
State of being extinguished or of ceasing to be; destruction; suppression; as, the extinction of life, of a family, of a quarrel, of claim.
a.
Of mean extraction.
n.
The annihilation or extinction of a right or obligation.
v. i.
Total privation or loss; extinction; cessation; as, the death of memory.
n.
The act of extracting, or drawing out; as, the extraction of a tooth, of a bone or an arrow from the body, of a stump from earth, of a passage from a book, of an essence or tincture.
n.
Extinction.
n.
Extraction; descent.
n.
The act of obliterating, or the state of being obliterated; extinction.
n.
Lineage; extraction; descent; sometimes, high birth; noble extraction.
n.
End; conclusion; termination; extinction.
n.
Good extraction; dignity of birth.
n.
A method or practice of the administration of the sacrament by dipping the bread or wafer in the wine and administering both together.
n.
The act of tingeing or dyeing.
n.
Extraction.
n.
A coming to a close; cessation; extinction; termination; end.
n.
Act of quenching or extingishing.